The power system in Europe is undergoing significant change. In EU countries, wind power produced more electricity than gas power in 2023, and solar power produced more than coal power in 2024.
Flexible power use is also becoming increasingly important with increasing solar and wind power in the mix, since these power plants produce unevenly depending on the weather.
Flexible electricity use means increasing electricity use when renewable energy is abundant, and reducing consumption when it is less available. Buildings and electric cars could contribute significantly to such flexibility, but how exactly this should be done in practice is still is unclear. It is also difficult for people to adapt to changes in electricity prices, so we have simulated some scenarios.
“The study assumes that flexibility comes from three sources: flexible charging of electric cars, flexible space heating in buildings and flexible hot water tanks.”
Buildings and electric cars can adjust consumption
Our study on energy systems looks at how buildings and electric cars (EVs) can adjust electricity consumption according to simple rules instead of to market prices. The study examines the estimated effects up to 2040.
The first rule is to flatten electricity use over a 24-hour period. The second rule is to shift consumption to times when electricity use has historically been low.
In the scenarios, we have assumed that flexibility comes from three sources:
- Flexible charging of electric cars, such as charging when you can – and when electricity is cheap – not when you have to.
- Flexible space heating in buildings, such as heating rooms at night and turning down the daytime temperature, or selecting “cold zones” in rooms that are not in use.
- Flexible hot water tanks that can time heating at off-peak hours.
The study analyses the simple rules in two future scenarios that are aligned with the target for the European energy standard in buildings, up to 2040.
Reduced power demand despite increased consumption
The analyses show that the energy demand of Norwegian building stock will increase up to 2040, despite better insulation and energy efficiency measures. The results include EV charging.
Nevertheless, the need for electricity from the grid can still be significantly reduced thanks to efficient heating technologies and photovoltaic installations.
The results also show that the consumption pattern for electricity could change significantly by 2040. Flattening consumption and shifting it to favourable times could reduce peak load in the grid by 10 to 12 percent by 2040.
Reducing peak load in this way could stabilize the grid and postpone the need to make expensive investments.
Hydropower adapts
Norway’s power exchange primarily adjusts to its neighbouring countries, rather than to the flexibility of consumption in Norwegian buildings.
“The study shows that although flexibility has advantages, energy upgrades in Norwegian building stock provide greater cost savings than flexibility.”
Installing more solar cells could result in having an overproduction of electricity in the middle of the day, with no room for it in the grid.
Our analyses show that if we even out the electricity consumption in our buildings, we can avoid having a bottleneck of excess power from solar cells – without significantly increasing total consumption.
Even if we change our electricity consumption to align with the rules, the impact on strategic investments in the power market would be limited. Norway’s power exchange will remain the same, because hydropower adjusts according to the availability of renewable power in the countries we share power with.
The study shows that although flexibility has advantages, energy upgrades in Norwegian building stock provide greater cost savings than flexibility.
These savings apply to the operation and investments in technologies for energy production, not the power grid.
Cost assumptions
The reality will be shaped by political choices and may look different than forecasted. The assumptions we have made in this study are that the climate goals are achieved and that the European power market is developed at the lowest possible cost approaching 2040.
We have also assumed that new power production can be built in Norway and that the power exchange can increase.
What we find is that the strong growth in renewable electricity production in the North Sea and neighbouring countries means that Norway will import electricity about half of the time in 2040, even with a quadrupling of onshore wind power in Norway and a doubling of foreign connections.
Norway will still remain a net exporter of power to Europe until 2040, even if the patterns of electricity use in the building stock change.
Uncertain future policy impacts
It is important to emphasise that the study outlines an imagined future for the development of the power market. The reality will be shaped by policy choices and may be different.
This study focused on how evening out electricity use in the building stock could affect the power market in the energy transition towards 2040.
Flexibility in the building stock may be a key component in this transition, as it affects the operating pattern of hydropower. Flexibility could also help solve local challenges and opens up more exciting research possibilities.
Stian Backe is a researcher in energy systems at SINTEF Energy and an associate professor II at the Department of Industrial Economics and Technology Management at NTNU. Backe studies how energy carriers interact on the path towards a zero-emission society, using a technical-economic analysis of markets and frameworks.
Here is the scientific publication:
Impact of activating energy demand flexibility in the building stock: A case study of Norway as a highly electrified country in the European power market, Science Direct.
This article was first published in Energiteknikk.
