Drivers, trends, and uncertainty in long-term price projections for energy management in public buildings

Buildings are responsible for almost 40% of energy consumption and CO₂ emissions in the EU (EC, 2010). Improving the energy efficiency of buildings is a vital step towards achieving the EU climate and energy objectives. Directive 2010/31/EU outlines measures specifically focused on the energy performance of buildings. Incentives are created for building operators to optimize their energy sub-systems in a more robust, energy-efficient, and cost-effective manner. The challenge is to choose efficient energy-supply portfolios accounting for technological and market deregulation and risks. Decision support tools for energy management in public buildings using future scenarios of market and technological developments would be beneficial. The aim of this paper is to discuss the drivers and uncertainties in the recent and future energy market trends and prices, including technological progress and developments in fossil-fuel markets. This discussion is relevant for researchers and policymakers in general, and in particular, as an input for scenarios used in the development of decision support systems.