Abstract
This report documents how the el-certificate market has been implemented in EMPS as
one extra area in the model. The reservoir storage for the new area represents the net
balance for the certificate market. In this way, the existing methodology for strategy
calculation in EMPS is utilized for the certificate inventory. Our model for forecasting in the
certificate market:
- Is an integrated model for el-certificates and electricity
- Carry out a week-by-week dynamic simulation for several constitutive years
- Includes uncertainty for climate variables
- Apply a stochastic-dynamic strategy for the certificate inventory
- Calculate the penalty rate endogenously
one extra area in the model. The reservoir storage for the new area represents the net
balance for the certificate market. In this way, the existing methodology for strategy
calculation in EMPS is utilized for the certificate inventory. Our model for forecasting in the
certificate market:
- Is an integrated model for el-certificates and electricity
- Carry out a week-by-week dynamic simulation for several constitutive years
- Includes uncertainty for climate variables
- Apply a stochastic-dynamic strategy for the certificate inventory
- Calculate the penalty rate endogenously