Abstract
The objective of the work described in this report has been to quantify emissions of CO2 from the power system in Europe in a time perspective up to 2050. The quantification will contribute to establishing a definition of a zero emission building (ZEB). The definition of ZEB must be connected to the energy system, which the buildings are part of. Since the energy systems are expected to change significantly in the coming decades, it is neccessary to tie the definition of ZEB to possible scenarios of development of the systems. Five scenarios are elaborated to describe possible future developments in a time perspective up to 2050. The scenarios are created on variations in demand and in production portfolios of electricity. The scenarios are Red (high demand, limited growth in RES-E production), Yellow (limited demand, some growth in RES-E production), Green (limited demand, high growth in local and regional RES-E production), Blue (high demand, high growth in large-scale RES-E production), Ultra Green (decreased demand, some increase in nuclear production, increased RES-E production, mainly small scale). All scenarios except Red are assumed to have more than 50% RES-E in 2050.Emissions of CO2 are analysed by the European Multi-area Power Market Simulator (EMPS). The EMPS model is a stochastic optimization model for hydro-thermal electricity markets. Most of the methodology and parts of the data input are from the EU FP7 project SUSPLAN (www.susplan.eu). Important sources for input data have been “World Energy Outlook” from IEA and reports from Eurelectric.The total CO2 emissions for Yellow, Green and Blue will be reduced from 1388 Mtonne/y in 2010 to 600 - 800 Mtonne/y in 2050. The total emissions for Red are nearly the same in 2050 as in 2010. The specific emissions for Yellow, Green and Blue will be reduced from 361 gCO2/kWh in 2010 to 100-200 gCO2/KWh in 2050. The Ultra Green scenario represents a nearly emission free electricity system in 2050. The situation in 2
