Profitable increases in cross border transmission capacities in a European power system with large shares of renewables.

This report describes analyses of profitable increases in cross border capacities in Europein a time perspective 2030‐2050 for situations with large shares of renewables in thepower system. The analysis reuses a lot of the methodology from the EU 7th FrameworkProgramme project SUSPLAN.     The analyses use the EMPS model (a European model for multi-area power market simulations) and a new investment algorithm on four scenarios Red (40.1 % RES-E in 2050, traditional technologies), Yellow (54 % RES-E in 2050, traditional technologies + extra PV), Green (69 % RES-E in 2050, mainly local and regional production) and Blue (72 % RES-E in 2050, large scale production far away from demand centers).     The analyses show that for the four scenarios considerable increases in cross border connections will be necessary. The capacities are in all scenarios more than doubled in 2050 compared to the system in 2010 based on profitability criteria. The result varies from about 120 000 MW in new capacities to as much as 712 700 MW dependent on the volume and location of the new renewables. The increase of transmission capacities is much higher in Blue than in the other scenarios. Blue is dominated by large scale offshore wind production and import of solar based production from Africa. The Green has the lowest CO₂ emissions, a secure electricity system and the lowest electricity prices. High investments are required, but they are limited compared to a future like Blue.