Contingency screening starting from probabilistic models of hazards and component vulnerabilities

The need to analyze high-impact low-probability
events on power systems, due to natural and man-related threats
calls for comprehensive approaches to security assessment,
which exploit the concept of risk. The paper describes a
probabilistic approach and a tool, developed in the EU research
project AFTER, aimed at selecting the most critical
contingencies to be analysed in depth, starting from short-term
probabilistic models of incumbent natural or man-related
threats and from component vulnerability curves in an
integrated power and ICT system. A fast estimate of the
contingency impact is obtained by using topological metrics.
Results on a realistic power system include the sensitivity
analyses of different contingency selection options, and the
verification of the performances of the estimated impact metrics
for screening purposes.