Abstract
Society depends on a secure electricity supply which is increasingly important as various sectors are being electrified to substitute fossil fuels. The sustainability targets for the future cannot be met unless the necessary transformation of the power system is addressed. The future power system should be renewable, flexible, intelligent, secure, and resilient. This transformation should be made at acceptable costs, without jeopardising the security of electricity supply. The electricity grid is a crucial enabler for the energy transition. Intensified electrification poses new challenges and requirements for the electricity grid, through the connection of more variable renewable distributed generation and new types of electrical loads and increased demand. There is increased need for flexibility and reserves in the operation of the power system. To utilise flexibility in generation, consumption, and storage, digitalisation is needed for better monitoring and control. Digitalisation, new technologies, and flexibility will, on the one hand, lead to new threats and dependencies and, on the other hand, provide opportunities for new ways of handling the security of supply. At the same time, the power system will be more exposed to natural disasters in the future due to climate change and increased weather-related stress. All in all, there is a question if we might experience new types of High Impact Low Probability events, due to the increased complexity, dependencies, and uncertainties. It is important to understand the new risk picture and find the right strategies for dealing with the security of electricity supply in the future power system. In a rapidly changing power system, it is essential to monitor and analyse the development of the security of electricity supply. There are comprehensive changes to be expected as we move closer to 2050, and history can’t tell us what to expect. There are large knowledge needs for how to deal with the challenges and how to utilise the new possibilities. The concepts of vulnerability and resilience can be further developed and used to study the various aspects of the security of supply for the future.
