Abstract
Sedimentation in hydro-power reservoirs can cause adverse outcomes such as damage to components or
unexpected downtime. The STRIVAN research project aims to develop a risk-based model to quantify and
compare the net present value of mitigation measures. Quantifying risks involves calculating the probability
of outcomes as well as the consequence. This work discusses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimating
probability distributions for outcomes. Monte Carlo simulations combined with a one-dimensional (1D) quasi-unsteady sediment transport model has been implemented in a case study.
unexpected downtime. The STRIVAN research project aims to develop a risk-based model to quantify and
compare the net present value of mitigation measures. Quantifying risks involves calculating the probability
of outcomes as well as the consequence. This work discusses a Monte Carlo simulation approach to estimating
probability distributions for outcomes. Monte Carlo simulations combined with a one-dimensional (1D) quasi-unsteady sediment transport model has been implemented in a case study.
