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Estimation of Sojourn Time Distribution Parameters Based on Expert Opinion and Condition Monitoring Data

Abstract

This paper presents an Bayesian approach for the estimation of sojourn time distribution parameters. Expert opinion and condition monitoring data can be used as source of information for the estimation. It is shown how expert opinion and data can be combined and how estimates for the parameters can be calculated by means of numerical methods. It is also discussed how expert uncertainty and systematic expert errors can be handled. Furthermore, procedures are presented for utilizing censored data sets, which are available as discrete time-series from a condition monitoring program. Finally, several examples are presented showing the practical application and the use of the approach.

Category

Academic chapter/article/Conference paper

Language

English

Author(s)

  • Thomas Michael Welte
  • Arnt Ove Eggen

Affiliation

  • Norwegian University of Science and Technology
  • SINTEF Energy Research

Year

2008

Publisher

IEEE conference proceedings

Book

Proceedings of the 10th International Conference on Probabilistic Methods Applied to Power Systems

ISBN

978-1-934325-21-6

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