Abstract
Hydrogen is seen as a key energy carrier to reduce CO2 emissions. Two main production options for hydrogen with low CO2 intensity are water electrolysis and natural gas reforming with Carbon Capture and Storage, known as green and blue hydrogen. Northern Norway has a surplus of renewable energy and natural gas availability from the Barents Sea, which can be used to produce hydrogen. However, exports are challenging due to the large distances to markets and lack of energy infrastructure. This study explores the profitability of hydrogen exports from this Arctic region. It considers necessary investments in hydrogen technology and capacity expansions of wind farms and the power grid. Various scenarios are investigated with different assumptions for investment decisions. The critical question is how exogenous factors shape future regional hydrogen production and export. The results show that production for global export may be profitable above 90 €/MWh, excluding costs for storage and transport, with blue hydrogen being cheaper than green. Depending on the assumptions, a combination of liquid hydrogen and ammonia export might be optimal for seaborne transport. Exports to Sweden can be profitable at prices above 60 €/MWh, transported by pipelines. Expanding power generation capacity can be crucial, and electricity and hydrogen exports are unlikely to co-exist.
